Winter is traditionally a challenging period for swim schools.
As temperatures fall, many families become less enthusiastic about leaving the house, changing into swimwear and managing wet hair on cold evenings. Illness, holidays and changes to family routines can also contribute to a decline in attendance and enrolments.
Most swim school operators expect some level of winter drop-off—but what does a typical decline actually look like?
We reviewed the data to find out.
What We Analysed
The analysis included established swim schools operating across Australia and New Zealand.
Each swim school had been operating for multiple years, helping to reduce the impact of rapid early-stage growth or unusual start-up fluctuations.
We compared the number of active students at each swim school on:
- 1 March, before the colder months
- 1 July, during the middle of winter
The average swim school included in the analysis had 862 active students.
The Average Winter Drop-Off Was 6.6%
Across the swim schools analysed, the average reduction in active students between 1 March and 1 July was 6.6%.
For an average-sized swim school with 862 students, this would represent a reduction of approximately 57 students over the four-month period.
This supports what most swim school operators already experience: winter drop-off is real and should be factored into annual forecasts, staffing decisions and retention planning.
However, the results also showed that a winter decline is not inevitable.
The Best-Performing Swim School Grew by 1.5%
The strongest-performing swim school in the data recorded a 1.5% increase in active students between March and July.
Rather than losing students over winter, the swim school managed to grow its enrolment base.
This result demonstrates that seasonality does not have to determine performance. While colder weather creates additional challenges, some swim schools are still able to maintain—or even increase—their student numbers.
The Largest Decline Was 11.6%
At the other end of the range, the weakest result was an 11.6% reduction in active students.
For a swim school with 862 students, a decline of this size would represent approximately 100 students.
A drop of this size can have a significant effect on revenue, class occupancy, and staffing efficiency. It can also create additional pressure heading into spring, as the business must replace lost students before it can begin growing again.
What Should Swim Schools Expect?
Based on the data, most established swim schools should expect their active student numbers to fall by approximately 5% to 8% between the beginning of March and the beginning of July.
A result within this range is relatively normal.
However, swim schools should still aim to keep their winter decline below 5%. Achieving this would place the business ahead of the average result and provide a stronger starting position for the second half of the year.
The difference between a 5% decline and an 8% decline may appear small, but it can be meaningful at scale.
For a swim school with 862 students:
- A 5% decline represents approximately 43 students.
- An 8% decline represents approximately 69 students.
That is a difference of around 26 students, along with the associated revenue and effect on class occupancy.
Using Winter Drop-Off as a Benchmark
Rather than viewing winter decline as something that simply happens each year, swim schools can use it as a measurable performance benchmark.
A useful starting point is to compare active student numbers on 1 March and 1 July each year.
The results can then be assessed against the following guide:
- Below 5% decline: Strong winter performance
- Between 5% and 8%: Typical result
- Above 8%: Below-average result
- No decline or positive growth: Exceptional performance
The objective may not be to eliminate seasonality completely. Instead, swim schools can aim to improve their result each year and outperform the typical market decline.
The Bottom Line
The winter drop-off is real.
Our data showed an average reduction of 6.6% in active students between 1 March and 1 July among established Australian and New Zealand swim schools.
Most operators should expect a decline of somewhere between 5% and 8%, but should aim to keep it below 5%.
The strongest result in the analysis was a 1.5% increase, showing that winter growth is possible.
The weakest result was an 11.6% decline, demonstrating how significantly results can vary between swim schools.
Winter may create a headwind, but the data shows that the size of the drop-off is not the same for every swim school.