Over the last 12 months, we’ve been tracking customer retention rates across swim schools for each academic term. Our latest analysis explores retention rates for Term 1 2025 (February to April), traditionally a time when families settle back into routines after the summer holidays in the southern hemisphere.
About the Data
This analysis examines cancellation and retention data from Term 1 2025, across swim schools with enrollments ranging from 241 to 2,495 students. The average enrollment size this term was 903 students, up from the previous term’s 812.77 students.
The data was collected using First Class class management software, tracking KPIs including enrollment growth and student attrition.
Methodology
Attrition rate was calculated for each swim school as:
Attrition Rate = Cancelled Students / Starting Students
For example, if a school had 49 cancellations from 981 starting students:
Attrition Rate = 49 / 981 ≈ 4.99%
Monthly attrition rates were derived by dividing the term rate across the typical three-month period.
The data was collected using First Class class management software, tracking KPIs including enrollment growth and student attrition.
Term 1 2025 Findings
- Average Monthly Attrition: 4.99%
- Best-Performing Swim School: 3.75% per month
- Worst-Performing Swim School: 6.9% per month
- Average School Size: 903 students
The results suggest a stabilising of retention after the higher drop-offs seen in Term 4, as families recommit to their regular activities post-summer.
Comparison to Previous Term (Term 4 2024)
- Term 4 2024 average monthly attrition: 5.77%
- Term 1 2025 average monthly attrition: 4.99%
→ Improvement of 0.78 percentage points, highlighting stronger retention after the new year break.
Best-performing schools held steady, with attrition moving from 3.69% in Term 4 to 3.75% in Term 1. However, worst-performing schools improved notably, reducing from 8.09% to 6.9% monthly attrition.
Additionally, the average school size grew from 812.77 to 903 students, suggesting healthy demand for swim lessons despite seasonal churn.
Comparison to Yearly Average
- Yearly average monthly attrition across the past four terms: 4.87%
- Term 1 2025 slightly above the yearly average but below the most recent Term 4
This pattern reflects a typical seasonal bounce-back in enrollment after the holiday period.
Growth Insights
Despite natural student churn, swim schools overall saw stable growth during Term 1, supported by strong re-enrollment patterns as families resumed structured activities.
Conclusion of Findings
The Term 1 2025 results confirm that while attrition remains an ongoing challenge, swim schools can expect better retention as routines settle in the first part of the academic year. Ongoing tracking shows:
✅ Lower attrition compared to Term 4
✅ Higher average enrollments
✅ Consistently strong demand despite a dynamic student population
Future Analysis
As we move through 2025, further analysis will explore:
- Regional differences in retention
- The effect of different pricing and class structures on churn
- Longer-term cohort tracking to measure lifetime customer value