Analysis of Customer Retention Rates for Swim Schools

kids having swimming lesson

We review term 2 cancellation data for swim schools based in Australia to identify the average retention rates across the industry.

Analysis: Swim School Customer Retention Rates - Part 2

Earlier in the year we looked at customer retention rates from a range of swim schools for the term 1 period. (Jan to March end).

This analysis explores retention rates for term 2 – April to June.

Most of these swim schools are based in Australia and New Zealand therefore April to June represents the start of winter.

About the Data

Our analysis focused on cancellation data from Term 2 of 2024, covering the period from late April to mid-July. We examined swim schools ranging in size from 190 to 2,600 students, with an average enrollment of approximately 754. Most of the schools were located in Australia and New Zealand, and this term represents the last of the summer season, transitioning into the cooler autumn months.

This de-identified data was collected from our class management software – First Class. 

Methodology

We calculated the attrition rate for each swim school included in our dataset. The attrition rate is determined by dividing the number of cancelled students by the total number of starting enrollments at the beginning of the term.

Example: For a swim school with 65 student cancellations and an initial enrollment of 438, the attrition rate for the term would be calculated as follows:

Attrition Rate = 65438≈14.8%\text{Attrition Rate} = \frac{65}{438} \approx 14.8\% Attrition Rate=43865​≈14.8%

To estimate the monthly attrition rate, we can divide the term rate by three, accounting for two weeks of school holidays plus a 10-week term:

Monthly Attrition = 14.8%3≈4.9%\text{Monthly Attrition} = \frac{14.8\%}{3} \approx 4.9\% Monthly Attrition=314.8%​≈4.9%

This de-identified data was collected from our class management software – First Class. 

Findings

Our analysis yielded the following attrition rate insights:

  • Best Attrition Rate: 14.8% (with a monthly average of 4.9%)
  • Worst Attrition Rate: 29.7% (with a monthly average of 9.9%)
  • Average Attrition Rate: 21.4% (with a monthly average of 7.1%)

How Did the Data Compare to Last Time?

When comparing this dataset to our previous analysis from Term 1 of 2024, there are notable changes:

  • The best attrition rate increased from 8.42% to 14.8%.
  • The worst attrition rate has increased significantly from almost 19% to 29.7%, suggesting that some swim schools may be struggling more with retention during this period.
  • The average attrition rate has increased from 12.41% to 21.4%, highlighting a significant drop-off.

You can find the last analysis results here.

Conclusion of Findings

Many swim schools talk about the winter drop off. 

This data backs up this theory that a considerable drop off occurs during the colder months.

Every swim school measured displayed a worse performance in term 2 than the previous term.

Other factors such as cost of living could also be having an impact on these results with more parents potentially cutting out extra curricular activities to cut costs.

Future Analysis

To provide ongoing insights to the industry, we will continue to review this data every three months, incorporating additional variables such as country and business model. Our next analysis will focus on term 3 (July end to October) If you would like to stay updated on our future reports and insights regarding retention data, please join our email list here.